Bowlers Journal July 2001 The Schumacker Report The Evolution of The Bowling Business Where It's Been Where It's Now Where It's Going A Historic Convergence

Schumacker Report

Projected Trends

League bowling is on a 30-year trend of decline, the rate of which has reached about 7.5% in recent years. There is no credible evidence that this trend will significantly change in the near-term. In fact, there are indications that an acceleration is more likely than a decline in the attrition rate. ( Ed. Note: Early ABC returns show a decline in the attrition rate for the 2000-'01 season). One likely cause for a potential increase in the attrition rate of league bowlers is the increase in maturity of the customer group. Surveys conducted from 1997-99 in single and chain (S&C) centers indicated that the average league bowler had bowled in a league for approximately 19 years. This leads to several conclusions:

• We continue to have difficulty in retaining new bowlers in league products past their initial season.
• There is a large group of people who have been bowling for the majority of their adult lives.
• There is the possibility that major increases in the rate of attrition of league bowlers will occur in the next few years.

Gen 1 Bowlers VS. Gen 2

What we're seeing is the winding down of the second generation of league bowlers (Gen 2). The first generation (Gen 1) grew as bowling moved out of the saloon into bowling-based recreation centers. This movement, pushed by Prohibition, began to occur during the 1920's. Gen 1 bowlers were in fact the basis for the stereotypical bowler, who tended to be an industrial worker with a strong tolerance for alcoholic beverages, a salty vocabulary, and a love for a good cigar.

Ironically, bowling's Gen 1 came to a close by efforts to eliminate pinboys, a major operating and customer service problem for bowling centers. The need to employ pinboys limited proprietors' ability to operate at capacity or during off-peak times (pinboys also often enhanced the seedy reputation of bowling centers, creating an unwholesome environment where women and children seemed out of place).

An additional negative aspect of Gen 1 league bowling was the restrictive membership practice of both the ABC and WIBC. It was not until 1950 that a clause barring African Americans, Asian Americans and Native Americans from participation in sanctioned events was removed from the ABC by-laws. The change had been resisted and only occurred after a court in Ohio threatened to revoke ABC's Illinois charter if the change was not made. The WIBC and American Junior Bowling Congress (AJBC) soon followed by removing similar provisions from their by-laws.

Make Way for the Golden Era

The trigger for the end of the Gen 1 Era was the development of a commercially viable pinsetter in the early 1950's. The new equipment allowed bowling proprietors to follow the movement of middle class population from the city to the suburbs. The result was explosive growth for bowling through the ‘50's and into the early ‘60's. The move to the suburbs and to clean, automated centers pushed bowling proprietors to embrace a new generation of league bowlers, fostering what would prove to be the Golden Era of League Bowling.

The opening of a new era occurs when the basic characteristics of the new era are established. The characteristics of this Golden Era, which can be traced back to its inception, are:

• A preference on the part of proprietors for league bowling over casual play.
• The proprietor's becoming dependent on the sanctioning organizations (ABC, WIBC and YABA's predecessor, the AJBC) to manage competitive bowling activity.
• The establishment of 32 to 35 weeks as a full season.
• The beginning of a move toward dependence on cash prize funds.

The Generation 2 (Gen 2) league bowlers were loyal to the sport, their associations, and the center in which they bowled. Week-to-week retention was never an issue. Season-to-season retention was assumed.

The Golden Age of League Bowling was also the Era of Operations-Driven Bowling. The primary concern of the bowling proprietor was the operation of the center. His motto was: keep it clean, keep the machines running, keep the lanes in scorable condition, and keep just enough staff to allow the center to operate. Marketing was what was done in the summer to drive traffic for the fall kick-off. Open play was allowed only when lanes could not be filled with leagues. During this era, the most important marketing tool was the key to the front doors.

A Watershed Event

In 2000, for the first time, casual games per lane were higher than league games per lane. This watershed event marks the end of both the Golden Age of League Bowling and its companion, the Era of Operations-Driven Bowling.

The closing of an era does not necessarily mean the end of the base activity, it simply marks the beginning of another era; in this case, the start of the Age of Casual Dominant Bowling and the Era of Marketing-Driven Bowling.

In the early years of this new bowling age, the tail of Gen 2 will get smaller. The economic and social trends associated with the expedited continuation of long-term economic expansion will also work against creating new Generation 3 (Gen 3) league bowlers. However, it will be our ability to form such new products that will, to a large degree, determine our future success.

The same general trends that work against league development give us every reason to believe that casual bowling has the opportunity to grow along with the long-term expansion of the economy. After peak economic activity is reached and a general economic decline begins, it could be expected that the level of casual bowling will decline. At that same time, lifestyle changes can be expected to increase the propensity to join structured programs, like bowling leagues.

The Figure 2 trend lines chart actual data through 2000 and projected bowling activity through 2117. Note that casual bowling activity begins to decline in 2009, with league bowling continuing its established trend, and the rate of decline slowing until growth is again achieved. The model presented has league bowling beginning to grow in 2008. The growth in league bowling will come from the development of new adult league Gen 3 bowlers.

In reality, the projected league trend line is a composite of two unique trends. One is the declining trend of Gen 2 league activity. The second is the increase of the Gen 3 league activity. The rate of Gen 2 league bowling's decline is projected to be mostly constant. Although some would see such a projection as being fatalistic, it is actually optimistic. There is a significant likelihood that the attrition rate will increase, possibly at an alarming rate. The maturity level (the number of years the average league bowler has been consuming our product) is a major concern.