BOWLING AT A CROSSROAD
Bowling has reached a critical fork in the road, now that open play lineage exceeds league lineage.
BOWLING IS DIFFERENT TODAY than 40 years ago. We all can agree on that. Opinions diverge; however, when the discussion turns to the current state of bowling and its future prospects.
Those individuals identified with the sports sanctioning bodies (American Bowling Congress, Women's International Bowling Alliance) justifiably look at recent trends as threats to the very existence of bowling. Many progressive bowling proprietors, on the other hand, look at the current trends as an opportunity to move their business into a new era. So which is it? Is bowling in a “near-death” state, or are we on the verge of an entirely new era? Let's check it out.
Enter the MUBIG Study
We're all aware of the consistent downward trend in league participation. The Multi -Unit Bowling Information Group (MUBIG) reported league lineage to have peaked in the 1976-1977 season at 7,373 games per lane. By 2000, that figure dropped to 3,958 games per lane, a loss of 46% of the 1976-77 base. The trend has been surprisingly consistent: in the last four years, a decline of about 7.5% per year. The MUBIG trend is noteworthy in that members report total paid league games bowled, sanctioned or not.
Although many assume casual bowling has increased enough to compensate for the loss of league lineage, the fact is that open play has remained relatively constant over the past 25 years.
With league lineage exhibiting near-constant decline and casual lineage staying relatively flat, the total number of games bowled per lane has declined during the period covered by the MUBIG data. The typical bowling center incurred a 26% decline in games bowled over the past 28 years.
In reaction to the long-term decline in volume, bowling operators increased pricing, not (as league bowlers tend to believe) that increased prices prompted the decline in volume. The price increases over the 28-year period simply managed to keep pace with the Consumer Price Index (CPI).
Additionally, the league bowler typically incurred a smaller price increase than did the casual customer. Whereas in the first 20 years of the period, average league pricing tended to be higher than the average casual-pricing, casual bowling has moved higher than league pricing over the past eight years.
Over the period covered by MUBIG's data, proprietors created two major waves of capital expenditures. The first came in the mid-‘80's with the general acceptance of automatic scoring.
The second wave, dealing with the general renovation of many bowling centers, began in the early ‘90's and continues to the present. In many cases, this renovation included updating scoring systems, replacing wood lanes with synthetics, installing lane bumpers as well as light-and-music packages, and upgrading the interior and exterior appearance.
In the case of both spending waves, proprietors – recognizing the need for their centers to be contemporary commercial recreational facilities – were forced to either use funds from cash flow to upgrade, or increase debt.
The net effect of increased pricing and increased capital spending has been improvement in revenue in spite of the decline in total lineage. Today's typical proprietor is operating a successful business with multiple revenue streams and a need for constant marketing.
An End and a New Beginning
The 1999-2000 season was an important time for bowling. For the first time since MUBIG data has been tracked, casual bowling lineage exceeded league lineage on a national basis. Given that there is no reason to believe the long-term trends seen in the data will quickly reverse, 1999-2000 marked a critical juncture in the history of our business.
The crossing of the league and casual trend lines signals the end of one era and the beginning of another. Entering a new era is, by definition, a time of significant change. Along with change comes resistance (from those comfortable with the past) accompanied by laments to re-invent the past. Namely:
- If only …proprietors would sanction all leagues, everything would be fine.
- If only …proprietors would lower their prices, everything would be fine.
- If only… scores were higher/lower, everything would be fine.
- If only… honor scores were more difficult to achieve, everything would be fine.
- If only… ABC, WIBC and YABA consolidated into one entity, everything would be fine.
In fact, even if all of the items listed above became reality, bowling's move into a new era would continue. The compelling force behind the changes in bowling comes from social, demographic and economic shifts, and not anything that's been done by those inside bowling. The move to a casual dominant structure will cause bowling institutions to change radically. Relevance to the customer will be the primary factor determining whether an organization prospers or becomes a display in a museum.
Although bowling will be fundamentally restructured, the result does not have to be the end of competitive bowling, particularly league play. League bowling is a great activity, and a great product. If it didn't exist, we would want it to be invented. It is not a matter of whether competitive bowling will exist in the future; rather, it is just a matter of how it will change.
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